…, to then run in 2031 for President
•Why CPC or SDP is a potential platform
The Nigerian political atmosphere is awash with speculation about the 2027 presidential election, particularly as it concerns a potential alliance involving former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Labour Party’s 2023 presidential candidate, Mr. Peter Obi.
Atiku first hinted about the alliance in 2024 after what he described as a “friendly meeting” with Obi sparked speculations.
He, however, confirmed the coalition talks in an interview with the BBC Hausa. “Yes, it’s very much possible. We can merge to achieve a common goal. So, it’s possible and nothing can stop it if we so wish to achieve that,” Atiku was quoted to have said.
The latest rumour around the alliance was ignited by the former vice president’s visit to former President Muhammadu Buhari in Kaduna penultimate Friday.
On the list of those who accompanied Atiku to see Buhari were known political actors and gladiators, including a former Governor of Kaduna State, Malam Nasir El Rufai; a former Speaker of the House of Representatives, who was also the former Governor of Sokoto State, and now a senator, Aminu Tambuwal; a former Governor of Adamawa State, Senator Bindu Jibrila; a former Governor of Benue State, Senator Gabriel Suswan, and a former Governor of Imo State, Chief Achike Udenwa.
However, the meeting, according to reports which was first carried by theeagleonline.com and confirmed to Sunday Vanguard by multiple sources close to the alliance, was not just a Sallah visit as claimed by the Atiku media team.
The sources at that meeting said behind the scenes was a meeting to tell Buhari what plans have been put in place ahead of the 2027 elections and get his support.
Before Atiku’s visit, some All Progressives Congress, APC, governors had also visited the former President.
Sunday Vanguard gathered that part of the fallout from that visit by the governors was the fact that some of them were already discussing the possibility of taking out the Congress for Progressive Change, CPC, the platform on which Buhari ran for presidential election three times and did not make it, and which was among the political parties that formed the APC, out of the ruling party at the federal level.
The permutation is that the CPC arm of the APC is going to be useful for the coming election.
For those who are reading into the political scene ahead of the 2027 elections, the feeling is that these two visits are interwoven, though done separately.
It was gathered that those who went to see Buhari are now ready to set up a structure that they believe can defeat the incumbent President and his party. According to the coalition proponents, with the right structure in place, it is possible to successfully challenge Tínubu in the upcoming election in 2027, citing alleged lopsided appointments, worsening security situation, alleged anti-people policies, frequent travels out of the country, and the internal crisis in APC as reasons.
Lagos
They are of the opinion, according to sources, that if Obi could win Tínubu in Lagos when the APC in the state was a one bunch, it would be a walkover now that the party is in disarray following the way the President handled the Speaker Mudashiru Obasa and State House of Assembly crisis which has polarized the party in the state.
Obi, in the 2023 election, got 582,454 votes in Lagos in what was considered a massive upset while Tínubu scored 572,606 votes.
The thinking is that this will likely repeat itself, and most likely on a wider margin in 2027.
The impending alliance between Atiku and Obi presents an interesting dynamic in the lead-up to the next election and, if realized, it could significantly alter the political landscape of the country.
The Plan
According to sources, Atiku is planning to run for President with Obi as his running mate, leveraging their combined strengths to challenge Tinubu.
This alliance, it was learnt, aims to capitalize on Atiku’s influence in the North and Obi’s appeal in the South-East, potentially creating a formidable opposition force against the ruling APC.
Another point believed to be working for the alliance is the fact that a lot of people in the North are already disenchanted with the government of the day.
This has been reechoed by the apex socio-political group in the North, the Arewa Consultative Forum, ACF, which has clearly expressed its displeasure with the way the country is being governed by Tínubu.
With the ill-feelings towards Tínubu in the North, Sunday Vanguard learnt that Atiku had been assured of the backing of the ACF ahead of the 2027 polls.
And with the ACF and its structure readily available for Atiku, it is certain he will gather more support and votes from the North this time around.
Sharing Agreement
A key aspect of this plan is a reported power-sharing agreement, where Atiku would serve one term (2027-2031) and then hand over to Obi, who would serve two terms as President.
Analysts believe that with Obi’s remarkable appeal and acceptability, particularly among young Nigerians, and with some of the philanthropy that he has done across the country, especially in the North, an alliance with Atiku could provide him with a stronger political platform and access to broader resources.
This arrangement is said to be part of the negotiations between the two leaders.
They are looking in the direction of the North for greater support than they got in the 2023 election.
Party Platform
With the LP and PDP enmeshed in self-inflicted crisis, the pair is reportedly considering using either the CPC or the Social Democratic Party (SDP) as their platform.
It is alleged that Atiku and his group have decided to abandon the PDP to the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, FCT, Nyesom Wike, who has been accused of creating problems for the party in order to serve the APC’s interest.
The CPC, being one of the parties that merged to form the APC, might offer a strategic advantage, while the SDP has shown potential with its recent activities. Recall that El Rufai, who was on the trip to visit Buhari, has moved into the SDP. A source close to the former Kaduna governor revealed that the SDP’s national leader who was the presidential candidate of the party in 2023, has said he would not contest the 2027 presidency if he sees a good presidential material.
Strategic calculations
The Atiku-Obi alliance is built on several strategic calculations such as regional balance, diverse support base, and opposition to APC.
Combining Atiku’s northern influence with Obi’s South-Eastern appeal could create a strong regional balance.
Therefore, it is believed that merging their support bases might attract a broader coalition of voters.
The alliance also aims to challenge the APC’s dominance, capitalizing on growing discontent with the current government.
Political analysts are already tinkering with the figures.
They have combined the votes of Atiku and Obi in 2023 to arrive at the conclusion that it is possible to beat the incumbent.
Nigeria has a total of 93,469,008 voters. In 2023, the turnout was just 26.71 percent of that figure.
While Tínubu won in 12 states with 8,794,726 votes, which is about 36.61 percent of votes, Atiku also took 12 states with 6,984,520 votes, which is about 29.07 percent of the votes, and Obi won in 11 states, technically 12, because he also won in the FCT, with 6,101,533 votes, which is 25.40 percent of the votes cast.
Combining Atiku and Obi’s votes amounted to about 13,086,000 votes whereas Tínubu had 8,794,726 votes. The calculation is that Atiku and Obi can get more votes with the perceived poor performance of the present administration.
Concerns
Much as this alliance seems to present beautiful opportunities, it also faces challenges.
Differences in ideology and ambition might lead to internal conflicts.
Again, the choice of party platform and power-sharing agreement might face opposition from within their parties or from other aspirants.
Implications
The alliance could pose a significant challenge to the ruling APC, especially if internal conflicts within the party persist. Also, the success of the alliance would depend on its ability to resonate with voters, addressing pressing national issues and offering a compelling alternative to the incumbent government.
The alliance might lead to a realignment of political forces, with potential defections from other parties and shifts in voter loyalty.
No threats
But those backing the President have dismissed the perceived threats posed by the potential coalition with the wave of hand.
Reacting to the visit of Atiku’s group to Buhari via his X handle, a presidential spokesperson, Daniel Bwala, said: “There is nothing these oppositions under the auspices of coalition for a wild goose chase cannot try to do to keep relevance.
“They went to meet @MBuhari and it was reported that he insisted the meeting be held in or on camera so that El Rufai would not go and say Buhari is joining SDP and PDP.
“Hard as they try, they are still struggling to convince Nigerians that they have any plan at all, needless alternative plan.”
‘Obidients’ disagree
Meanwhile, members of the Obidients movement, the campaign structure of the LP presidential candidate in the last election populated mostly by young Nigerians, said they would not be part of any alliance if Obi is not its flag bearer.
They maintained that any arrangements without Obi as the presidential candidate is dead on arrival, saying Atiku should support the former Anambra governor.
According to them, Atiku cannot be in the race when the South hasn’t completed its eight years.
So, it would be wise for him to step down for Obi.
One of those pushing this narrative is Samuel Ajayi, a self-professed Obidient.
According him, “If we’ve done Atiku/Obi and it didn’t work, why can’t we do Obi/Atiku? Don’t be emotional about this.
“The fact still remains that aside from the competence and character that Peter Obi has, he is still the most inspiring among all the candidates to unseat Tínubu.”Another proponent of this narrative is Jonathan Ajere, who said: “Atiku should do all he can to get Peter Obi on board. “But, he should either consider being Obi’s running mate or completely step aside and support Obi wholeheartedly. “This is because any attempt to field any northern candidate when the South has not completed its eight years is going to be counter-productive.
“It will be an express ride for Tinubu to a second term on a platter of gold.
”So, what Atiku and northern oligarchy need to do if they want Tinubu out of office in 2027 is to support a southern candidate and there is no candidate in South that has massive appeal and acceptability across Nigeria like Obi as of today.
“So, if Atiku listens to this voice of reason, the 2027 elections will be a walkover for the coalition. The coalition is what the APC guys dread so much. That’s why they are crying against it in pretence.”
As politicking for the 2027 general elections thickens, the success of the coalition would depend on various factors, including the ability to maintain internal cohesion, appeal to a broad voter base and effectively challenge the incumbent government.
If successful, it could significantly impact the outcome of the 2027 presidential election.
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