FACT CHECK: How accurate are claims made by Tinubu in his Independence Day speech?
On Tuesday, President Bola Tinubu joined Nigerians in celebrating the country’s 64th Independence Day anniversary — his second since assuming office on May 29, 2023.
The president made several claims while reading his Independence Day speech, stating how his policies and reforms have yielded results since he took over the reign of power.
TheCable checked some of his claims, and here is what we found.
CLAIM ONE: Tinubu said Nigeria attracted foreign direct investments (FDI) worth more than $30 billion in 2023 due to his economic policies.
“The economy is undergoing the necessary reforms and retooling to serve us better and more sustainably,” the president said.
“If we do not correct the fiscal misalignments that led to the current economic downturn, our country will face an uncertain future and the peril of unimaginable consequences.
“Thanks to the reforms, our country attracted foreign direct investments worth more than $30 billion in the last year.”
FDI is the establishment of a company or business in a country by a foreign investor.
VERIFICATION
On February 17, 2024, Doris Uzoka-Anite, minister of industry, trade and investment, said the country obtained about $30 billion in investment commitments from various investors.
Uzoka-Anite said the commitments will be redeemed within five to eight years.
Also, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) usually releases capital importation reports, which include details on foreign direct investment inflows that Nigeria attracts every quarter.
The NBS capital importation report categorises capital inflows into three main types: foreign direct investment (FDI), foreign portfolio investment (FPI), and other investments.
According to data obtained from NBS, between Q2 — when Tinubu’s administration began — and Q1 of 2024, Nigeria attracted a total of $448.95 million in foreign direct investment (FDI).
In the same period, foreign portfolio investments — which involve investments in financial assets such as stocks and bonds — amounted to $2.58 billion.
Additionally, other investments, such as loans, trade credits, and other capital inflows totaled $3.12 billion.
Further analysis by TheCable showed that in Q2 2023, Nigeria recorded $1.03 billion in foreign inflows, which includes FDI, portfolio investments, and other investments.
The figure dropped to $654.65 million in Q3 2023 but rose to $1.09 billion in Q4.
However, by Q1 2024, total capital inflow surged to $3.38 billion.
In total, Nigeria attracted $6.14 billion in foreign inflows between Q2 2023 and Q1 2024.
VERDICT
Based on data from the NBS, Tinubu’s claim that the country attracted more than $30 billion in foreign direct investment in 2023 is incorrect.
According to the minister of industry, trade, and investment, what Nigeria got were investment commitments, which represent pledges or agreements to invest $30 billion within five to eight years, rather than actual foreign direct investments.
CLAIM TWO: Tinubu said his administration inherited a foreign reserve of over $33 billion and has since increased and maintained it at $37 billion.
“We inherited a reserve of over $33 billion 16 months ago. Since then, we have paid back the inherited forex backlog of $7 billion. We have cleared the ways and means debt of over N30 trillion,” he said.
“We have reduced the debt service ratio from 97 percent to 68 percent. Despite all these, we have managed to keep our foreign reserve at $37 billion. We continue to meet all our obligations and pay our bills.”
VERIFICATION
Based on the last data released by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) on May 26, 2023, three days before the president assumed office, the foreign reserves stood at $35.14 billion.
However, the latest figures from the CBN, as of September 27, 2024, showed that the foreign reserves rose to $38.05 billion.
VERDICT
The president’s claim that his administration has increased the foreign reserves is true, based on data from CBN.
CLAIM THREE: Tinubu said his administration has successfully cleared the $7 billion foreign exchange backlog that was inherited when he took office.
“Since then, we have paid back the inherited forex backlog of $7 billion,” the president said.
VERIFICATION
FX backlog refers to the accumulated unmet foreign exchange (FX) demands or obligations that a country has not been able to fulfill.
On February 5, Olayemi Cardoso, CBN governor, said he inherited a $7 billion FX backlog when he took over the apex bank in September 2023.
The backlog indicates that there were outstanding requests from businesses, investors, or individuals for foreign currencies to facilitate international transactions — such as imports, debt payments, or foreign investments — that the CBN had not been able to supply due to a shortage of FX at the time.
On September 26, 2023, the CBN governor announced that the apex bank was working on settling the $7 billion FX backlog liabilities.
On March 20, 2024, Hakama Sidi Ali, director of corporate communications at CBN, said the apex bank has successfully settled all valid outstanding FX obligations.
Two days after, Kingsley Nwokeoma, president of the Association of Foreign Airlines and Representatives in Nigeria (AFARN), called for evidence of payment.
Nwokeoma said the apex bank should provide proof of payment, as they had yet to receive any funds.
However, on June 2, 2024, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) said 98 percent of trapped airlines’ funds in Nigeria had been cleared.
VERDICT
Based on the official statement from the CBN which is responsible for FX payments, and the IATA, representing foreign airlines, the president’s claim is largely correct.
CLAIM FOUR: Tinubu said his administration has cleared the ways and means debt of over N30 trillion.
“We have cleared the ways and means debt of over N30 trillion,” the president said.
VERIFICATION
Ways and means advances refer to a facility provided by the CBN that allows the federal government to borrow money from the apex bank to cover short-term funding needs.
Essentially, it helps the government manage its finances when there is a shortfall in revenue.
On May 23, 2023, the senate approved the securitisation of N22.7 trillion ways and means loans, following a request by former President Muhammadu Buhari on December 28, 2022, to convert the debt into a government bond.
Securitisation is the process of turning assets into interest-bearing securities that can be sold to investors.
Also, on December 30, 2023, the national assembly approved Tinubu’s request for the securitisation of outstanding N7.3 trillion ways and means debt.
While the Debt Management Office (DMO) has not released the document for the securitisation of the N7.3 trillion loan, the details of the N22.7 trillion loan securitised during Buhari’s administration showed that the tenure is 40 years, meaning that the principal and interests are expected to be paid within 40 years.
Additionally, there is a 3-year moratorium on the principal, which means for the first three years, the borrower does not have to make any payments towards the principal amount of the loan.
The document also states that it carries an interest rate of 9 percent per annum, which means that each year, the federal government will pay 9 percent of the remaining loan balance as interest.
VERDICT
Tinubu’s claim that his administration has cleared the N30 trillion ways and means is false, as the DMO document showed that the loan has been securitised to be paid within 40 years, not paid in full as Tinubu asserted.
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