President Bola Tinubu has finished ahead of Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar in the Oxford Metro Analytics’ National Trust Poll.
The poll, which closed on September 7, recorded 69,110 approved and unflagged responses in its final analytical dataset. Tinubu received 24,469 responses 35.41%, while Obi polled 23,402 33.86%, giving Tinubu a lead of 1,067 responses, or about 1.54 percentage points. Atiku came third with 18,430 responses 26.67%.
The results showed a different electoral map from the 2023 presidential election. Tinubu, who won 12 states in 2023, led in 20 states and the FCT. Obi and Atiku recorded the highest responses in eight states each.
Tinubu’s strongest regional performances came in the South-West, North-West and North-Central. He secured 10,968 responses 43.53% in the South-West, 4,129 43.10% in the North-West and 6,370 36.97% in the North-Central.
Obi dominated the South-East with 5,796 responses 63.97% and led the South-South with 2,389 41.48%. Atiku led the North-East with 1,235 responses 55.46%.
The poll also indicated growing support for Tinubu in parts of the North, as he led in Kaduna, Katsina and Gombe states won by Atiku in 2023 and in Kano, where Rabiu Kwankwaso won in 2023.
Other candidates included Omoyele Sowore with 1,016 responses and Seyi Makinde with 519. Another 638 respondents selected I Do Not Trust Any Candidate Yet, while 204 were undecided.
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